10 races · TIMESIM Original & TIMESIM 100 · Scott Tobia Handicapping
Keeneland has 10 races on the card. Our strongest TIMESIM 100 winning chance is Comprehensive in Race 10 at 47.1%. Both models put this horse first. A strong selection still needs the right price; the value screen below compares the morning line with our fair odds. TIMESIM SD0, SD3 and SD5 are shown separately; no variation was selected using race results.
Our selected feature is Race 8, Alw120000NW1X, at 5.5 furlongs on Turf. Beautiful War gets the nod from TIMESIM 100 at 17.1% to win. Gaffalione Tyler rides for Fawkes David. That works out to roughly 5-1 fair odds; we want a price above that estimate before calling it a win-bet opportunity. Atlal is the main model threat at 15.0%. Zakinthos rounds out the leading group. The Original model agrees on the top selection. Check official scratches, surface changes and the actual odds before using these projections.
The Keeneland card offers 10 races to work through. #10 Muffin Music in Race 1 has the clearest separation from its nearest rival in Scott’s ratings. That makes it a useful starting point for the card, while the race notes below explain both the attraction and the opposition. Ratings compare contenders; they do not turn a short price into a good bet.
Race 1: #10 Muffin Music. The main positives are a positive trainer record relative to this field and a stronger record at this track than many of these rivals. The supplied morning line is 7/2. Check the actual price and official changes before deciding whether to bet; this selection is a preference, not a guaranteed value play.
Race 8 is the highest-purse race listed in the supplied card. #7 Red Square leads Scott’s ordering. #7 Red Square comes out on top of this field, with a favorable rider-statistics profile and a positive trainer record relative to this field. Several entrants have an early-running profile, so a contested pace is a possibility. Red Square has a stalking or closing profile that could suit that scenario; a slow pace would make the assignment harder.
Race 6: #3 Blazing Affair is a longer-priced contender among Scott’s first three, listed at 8-1 on the morning line. The appeal includes a positive trainer record relative to this field and late-pace and running-style evidence that adds appeal. That price is a pre-race estimate, not a live quote or proof of a betting edge.
Card-based analysis generated from frozen ratings; confirm current odds and official changes.
Independent contender ratings alongside TIMESIM. Open a race and choose the Scott Tobia Handicapping tab for the full ranking.
Race 1: #10 Muffin Music · #2 Sang · #5 Nut Bush City
Race 2: #5 Flaming Rainbow · #7 Market Pundit · #3 Throttle
Race 3: #7 No Caller Id · #4 Nessy · #9 Walters Campaign
Race 4: #9 Stelvio Pass · #7 Harry Houdini · #5 Dontworryboutnothn
Race 5: #6 Moviestar Handsome · #8 Grand Premiere · #4 Wall Street Mogul
Race 6: #3 Blazing Affair · #1 Creative Quality · #8 Talkin In Cursive
Race 7: #2 Sweet Venture · #8 Pardi Vida · #12 Fumed
Race 8: #7 Red Square · #4 Beautiful War · #12 Gypsy Art
Race 9: #1 Tuskegee Airmen · #2 Tagliatelle · #8 Little Ni
Race 10: #4 Puteketeke · #7 Transformative · #2 Comprehensive
