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2026-10-17 · Dirt
Race 6 MdSpWt
Projected post: Time pending · 6 furlongs · 16 active runners
| # | Horse / Connections | ML | Our odds | Win | Place | Show |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | DecimationJ: SAEZ LUIS · T: ASMUSSEN STEVEN M | 4-1 | 2-1 | 32.60% | 41.68% | 47.64% |
| 10 | AcceleratorJ: TORRES JAIME A · T: MOREY WILLIAM E | 12-1 | 7-1 | 13.01% | 25.24% | 34.98% |
| 13 | Midnight MaxJ: TORRES CRISTIAN A · T: WISMER TROY S | 30-1 | 10-1 | 8.47% | 18.91% | 28.82% |
| 9 | PrateenJ: VELAZQUEZ J R · T: CASSE MARK | 15-1 | 15-1 | 6.38% | 14.60% | 22.69% |
| 12 | Fair ChaseJ: GAFFALIONE TYLER · T: WALSH BRENDAN P | 10-1 | 15-1 | 5.84% | 13.97% | 22.16% |
| 11 | CapitolaJ: ORTIZ IRAD JR · T: COX BRAD H | 7/2 | 20-1 | 5.35% | 12.80% | 20.46% |
| 5 | Start The PartyJ: PRAT FLAVIEN · T: WARD WESLEY A | 8-1 | 20-1 | 5.13% | 12.24% | 19.73% |
| 16 | TwilloJ: CURTIS BEN · T: LYNCH BRIAN A | 6-1 | 20-1 | 4.86% | 11.77% | 19.39% |
| 1 | Brazen CaineJ: ORTIZ JOSE L · T: SERVIS JOHN C | 12-1 | 20-1 | 4.68% | 11.44% | 18.59% |
| 4 | GoshawkJ: CONCEPCION AXEL · T: DANNER KELSEY | 12-1 | 20-1 | 4.51% | 11.38% | 18.65% |
| 2 | Midnight RumbleJ: ALVARADO JUNIOR · T: SHARP JOE | 15-1 | 40-1 | 2.71% | 7.31% | 12.55% |
| 7 | Outlaw JoeJ: TORRES CRISTIAN A · T: STEWART DALLAS | 5-1 | 60-1 | 1.69% | 4.73% | 8.54% |
| 14 | Just Plain EugeneJ: ORTIZ JOSE L · T: HANCOCK JOHN A | 10-1 | 60-1 | 1.45% | 4.30% | 7.75% |
| 6 | Dr. BobJ: GUTIERREZ MARIO · T: LYNCH BRIAN A | 8-1 | 80-1 | 1.39% | 3.98% | 7.24% |
| 15 | Epic JourneyJ: ORTIZ IRAD JR · T: SHARP JOE | 5-1 | 100-1 | 1.06% | 3.15% | 5.91% |
| 8 | Big City SteveJ: ESPINOZA ASSAEL · T: VON HEMEL DONNIE K | 30-1 | 120-1 | 0.85% | 2.50% | 4.91% |
Top exacta combinations
3-10 (5.33%) · 3-13 (3.94%) · 3-9 (3.04%) · 3-12 (2.90%) · 3-11 (2.60%)
Scott Tobia Handicapping
#11 Capitola · #5 Start The Party · #15 Epic Journey
Choose the Scott Tobia Handicapping tab above for full ratings. Ratings are not win probabilities.
#11 Capitola gets the nod here, with a useful trainer-and-rider combination record and a positive trainer record relative to this field. #3 Decimation is the lone entrant with a pronounced early-running profile, making that horse an important pace consideration.
#5 Start The Party is the main alternative, bringing a positive trainer record relative to this field. #15 Epic Journey rounds out the first three, with a favorable rider-statistics profile. The top choice has no positive race-speed history in the supplied inputs, so treat this assessment cautiously.
Analysis generated from the saved pre-race card and frozen Scott Tobia ratings. Check official changes and current odds.