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2026-10-17 · Dirt
Race 1 MdSpWt
Projected post: Time pending · 4.5 furlongs · 6 active runners
| # | Horse / Connections | ML | Our odds | Win | Place | Show |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Brother MosesJ: PELTROCHE F · T: COLLINS TIM | 6/5 | 8/5 | 38.78% | 74.37% | 92.22% |
| 3 | Magic On The BayJ: SANTAELLA MOISES · T: BROWN RONNEY W | 5-1 | 5/2 | 28.39% | 46.92% | 63.19% |
| 1 | GoldeckJ: LATCHMAN RESHAWN · T: MURDOCK STEPHEN | 8/5 | 5-1 | 15.61% | 37.22% | 60.49% |
| 6 | Feeling EnchantedJ: MAWING M A · T: WILHELM TABITHA M | 20-1 | 8-1 | 11.64% | 19.21% | 27.55% |
| 4 | IfthedevildancedJ: ARROYO BUENO NOMAR · T: LEWIS WILLIAM R JR | 6-1 | 20-1 | 4.86% | 17.51% | 40.22% |
| 2 | Thunder PassJ: CHILO MAXIMO · T: STEHR JOSEPH P | 15-1 | 140-1 | 0.72% | 4.77% | 16.34% |
Top exacta combinations
3-5 (17.20%) · 5-1 (12.79%) · 5-3 (11.69%) · 1-5 (9.41%) · 5-4 (7.68%)
Scott Tobia Handicapping
#5 Brother Moses · #1 Goldeck · #3 Magic On The Bay
Choose the Scott Tobia Handicapping tab above for full ratings. Ratings are not win probabilities.
The preference is #5 Brother Moses, with race-speed figures that compare well with this field and late-pace and running-style evidence that adds appeal. Several entrants have an early-running profile, so a contested pace is a possibility. Brother Moses has a stalking or closing profile that could suit that scenario; a slow pace would make the assignment harder.
#1 Goldeck is the main alternative, bringing a positive trainer record relative to this field. #3 Magic On The Bay rounds out the first three, with a useful trainer-and-rider combination record. The reservation is that the early-pace comparison is less favorable.
Analysis generated from the saved pre-race card and frozen Scott Tobia ratings. Check official changes and current odds.